Defining Stock Market Modes: Depression, Crash, Bear, Correction, Dip, Pause & Hold (repost)

While interpolating the Deep Value ETF Accumulator chart, one might ask what is meant by the “MODE”.

The modes are simple lines-in-the-sand that represent how far a financial instrument such as a stock, bond, index or ETF has fallen from a recent peak price.

I’ll let you know up front, I had to do an internet search to find this information. The best information I found on this subject was from Joshua M. Brown (aka Downtown Josh Brown) at this website: http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/02/03/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections-2/

Here is the chart he used to define each mode:

I use a very similar method to define the mode of each ETF in the Deep Value ETF Accumulator chart. I added the “HOLD” mode because that helps me identify holdings that are ripe for selling off some excess returns; i.e. trim-the-fat. Most of the time, I am holding the ETF’s that are at or near their 52-week or all-time highs (ATH), but sometimes I will trim-the-fat and move some money to a fund that is out-of-favor.

The ETF’s that I track are usually hovering in the “Pause thru Correction” modes. As of today, 12-22-16 there are only two that are dancing in and out of Bear and Correction modes. Back in early 2016, a few of the ETF’s were flirting with Crash mode, but they didn’t quite make the grade. It is my preference to accumulate shares that are “on sale”. So, that is why the rankings in the Deep Value ETF Accumulator chart are based on this list of modes and percentage points off from 52 week highs.

If you look at the following links about the frequency of stock market crashes and bear markets, you’ll quickly realize that they are relatively infrequent and therefore the broad markets do not give us a great deal of opportunities to “buy low”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/37740147/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/t/historic-bear-markets/#.WFyiP_krLDd

http://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

https://www.americanfunds.com/individual/planning/market-fluctuations/past-market-declines.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-01-22/corrections-bear-markets-recessions-and-crashes

So, the fewer the asset classes in the portfolio that you are willing to accumulate, the fewer opportunities you may have to “buy low”. Yes, I may be overdiversified or even “diworsified”, but that is a risk that I am willing to take. For example, as of today, we are in a raging bull market. Almost everything is expensive and a typical 4 fund portfolio would give us scant few opportunities to “buy low”.

On the other hand, you could open-up the number of investable securities to accumulate, and then you will most certainly find good funds that are currently out of favor. Here’s a Deep Value ETF Accumulator chart from 12-21-16 for comparison.

I know some people like to buy the dip (BTD), but I prefer to buy corrections, bears and crashes.

Thank you for reading and check back again soon for information on how to find value in traditionally growth-oriented asset classes.

Micah McDonald

The Deep Value ETF Accumulator

5 Best Consumer Discretionary Sector ETFs to Own Long-Term 1.7

VCR vs XLY vs IYC vs PEJ vs XHB

  • Asset Class: Consumer Discretionary Sector

  • Oldest ETF back tested: The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLY)

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.88

  • Long-Term Performance: 9.29% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 7.80% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1999 – March 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 32

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 16

XLY vs SPY: January 1999 – March 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Consumer Discretionary Sector ETFs to Own Long-Term 1.7”

5 Best U.S. Mid Cap Value ETFs to Own Long-Term: SYLD vs EZM vs RWK vs RFV vs DON 1.7

  • Asset Category: U.S. Mid Cap Value

  • Correlation to US Markets: 0.91

  • Long-Term Performance: 12.64% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance (US Large Cap Blend): 10.66% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1972 – March 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ)

  • Correlation to US Markets: 0.91

  • Long-Term Performance: 10.19% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 7.60% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: August 2000 – March 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 40

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 20

U.S. Mid Cap Value vs U.S. Large Cap Blend: January 1972 – March 2024

Continue reading “5 Best U.S. Mid Cap Value ETFs to Own Long-Term: SYLD vs EZM vs RWK vs RFV vs DON 1.7”

5 Best Technology Sector ETFs to Own Long-Term: SMH vs XLK vs VGT vs SOXX vs IYW 1.7

  • Asset Class: Technology Sector

  • Oldest ETF back tested: The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLK)

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.86

  • Long-Term Performance: 8.83% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 7.80% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1999 – March 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 121

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 27

XLK vs SPY: January 1999 – March 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Technology Sector ETFs to Own Long-Term: SMH vs XLK vs VGT vs SOXX vs IYW 1.7”

5 Best Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs to Buy and Hold: EYLD vs FEMS vs XCEM vs DGS vs EWX 1.7

  • Asset Class: Diversified Emerging Markets

  • Correlation to U.S. Stock Market: 0.75

  • Long-Term Performance: 5.45% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 10.55% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1995 – February 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

  • Correlation to U.S. Stock Market: 0.76

  • Long-Term Performance: 8.18% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 10.76% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: May 2003 – March 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 97

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 7-years old or older: 44

Diversified Emerging Markets vs S&P 500: January 1995 – February 2024

EEM vs SPY: May 2003 – March 2024

EEM vs SPY: April 11, 2003 – March 28, 2024

The Deep Value ETF Accumulator rankings for the 44 oldest Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs:

The 5 top ranked Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs head-to-head comparisons:

EYLD vs FEMS vs XCEM vs DGS vs EWX: August 2016 – March 2024

EYLD vs FEMS vs XCEM vs DGS vs EWX: July 14, 2016 – March 28, 2024

Stated objectives of 5 top ranked Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs:

EYLD – Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF focuses on companies in emerging market countries that are returning cash to shareholders through three attributes – dividends, buybacks, and net debt reduction. Differentiated sector allocation versus benchmark, MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Lower valuations than category average and MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Buybacks don’t trigger taxable events. Dividends and buybacks may help mitigate market drawdowns due to the income (dividends) they distribute, or the increase in operating earnings (buybacks) they generate.

FEMS – The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX® Fund is an exchange-traded fund. The investment objective of the Fund is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, before the Fund’s fees and expenses, of an equity index called the Nasdaq AlphaDEX® Emerging Markets Small Cap Index. The Index is an “enhanced” index created and administered by Nasdaq, Inc. (“Nasdaq”) which employs the AlphaDEX® stock selection methodology to select stocks from the Nasdaq Emerging Markets Index that meet certain criteria. To construct the Index, Nasdaq ranks the eligible stocks on growth factors including 3-, 6- and 12- month price appreciation, sales to price and one year sales growth, and separately on value factors including book value to price, cash flow to price and return on assets. All stocks are ranked on the sum of ranks for the growth factors and, separately, all stocks are ranked on the sum of ranks for the value factors. A stock must have data for all growth and/or value factors to receive a rank for that style. Each stock receives the best style rank from the previous step as its selection score. The top 200 stocks based on the selection score determined in the previous step comprise the “selected stocks”. The selected stocks are divided into quintiles based on their rankings and the top ranked quintiles receive a higher weight within the index. The stocks are equally weighted within each quintile. Each stock is then tested in order of its selection score rank to check if the weight assigned to that stock is outside the country/sector weighting constraints, which are set at 15% above the benchmark weight. If the weight assigned to the stock, when added with the weight assigned to all higher ranking stocks in its country/sector, is greater than the constraint, then the stock’s weight is lowered to the highest rank in the next quintile. Stocks previously lower in rank then move up one rank. Such stocks in the lowest quintile that violate a constraint are removed from the portfolio and replaced by the highest scoring stock not originally selected, subject to country/sector constraints. This process continues until all the country/sector weightings meet the constraint. The Index is reconstituted and rebalanced semi-annually.

XCEM – Columbia EM Core ex-China ETF. Target emerging markets exposure with an ETF that diversifies across emerging markets, excluding China. Focuses on broad diversification. Captures predominantly large- and mid-cap companies in a diverse set of emerging markets. Offers emerging markets exposure, excluding China. Provides access to emerging markets while satisfying a distinct portfolio need for investors looking to control their exposure to China. Mitigates country-specific risk. Helps avoid some of the risk found in traditional emerging market benchmarks that comes from China’s significant weight in those indices. This fund seeks investment results that correspond, before fees and expenses, to the price and yield performance of the Beta Thematic Emerging Markets ex-China Index. The Beta Thematic Emerging Markets ex-China Index is a market capitalization-weighted index designed to provide broad, core emerging markets equity exposure by measuring the stock performance of up to 700 emerging markets companies, excluding companies listed or domiciled in China or Hong Kong.

DGS – WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund seeks to track the investment results of dividend-paying small-cap companies in the emerging markets region. Gain exposure to small cap equity of emerging market dividend paying companies. Use to complement emerging market exposure accessing local economic growth and to satisfy demand for growth potential and income focus.

EWX – The SPDR® S&P® Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P® Emerging Markets Under USD2 Billion Index (the “Index”). Seeks to provide exposure to the small capitalization segment of emerging countries included in the S&P Global Broad Market Index. The selection universe includes emerging country equites within the S&P Global BMI with market capitalizations between $100 million and $2 billion at the time of inclusion. The S&P® Emerging Markets Under USD2 Billion Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index designed to represent the small capitalization segment of emerging countries included in the S&P Global BMI (Broad Market Index). The S&P Global BMI is a rules-based index that measures global stock market performance. The Index is reconstituted annually. To be included in the Index, a publicly listed company must have a total market capitalization between $100 million and $2 billion, and be located in a country that meets emerging markets status.

Thank you for taking time to read this article. If you found it useful, please share it with a friend.

Respectfully yours, Micah McDonald, aka the Deep Value ETF Accumulator

Previous Deep Value ETF Accumulator articles on Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs:

5 Best Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs to Buy and Hold: FEMS vs DGS vs EWX vs EEMS vs SPEM

Disclosure: We currently own shares of FEMS & EYLD and we intend to buy more shares in the future. I am not a professional investment advisor. Please perform your own due diligence or seek the advice of a Registered Investment Advisor before investing in any security mentioned in this article. This website contains affiliate links to Google AdSense.

5 Best Foreign Small / Mid Cap ETFs to Own Long-Term: FYLD vs PDN vs SCZ vs FNDC vs DLS 1.7

  • Asset Class: International ex-U.S. Small Cap Equities

  • Long-Term Performance: 6.48% CAGR

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.75

  • U.S. Large Cap Blend Performance: 10.55% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1995 – February 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend Fund (DLS)

  • Long-Term Performance: 4.61% CAGR

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.86

  • S&P 500 Performance: 9.39% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: July 2006 – February 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 21

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 11

International ex-US Small Cap vs U.S. Large Cap Blend (aka S&P 500): January 1995 – February 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Foreign Small / Mid Cap ETFs to Own Long-Term: FYLD vs PDN vs SCZ vs FNDC vs DLS 1.7”

5 Best Foreign Large Cap ETFs to Own Long-Term: DBEF vs HEFA vs DBAW vs IPKW vs DNL 1.7

  • Asset Class: International Developed ex-U.S. Market 

  • Long-Term Performance: 6.91% CAGR 

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.73

  • U.S. Large Cap Blend Performance: 10.96% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1986 – February 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA)

  • Long-Term Performance: 5.52% CAGR

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.88 

  • S&P 500 Performance: 8.89% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: September 2001 – February 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 157

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 41

International Developed ex-US Market vs U.S. Large Cap Blend (S&P 500): January 1986 – February 2024

EFA vs SPY: September 2001 – February 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Foreign Large Cap ETFs to Own Long-Term: DBEF vs HEFA vs DBAW vs IPKW vs DNL 1.7”

5 Best Gold ETFs to Buy and Hold: IAUM vs GLDM vs BAR vs AAAU vs IAU 1.7

  • Asset Class: Gold

  • Long-Term Performance: 7.49% CAGR

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.03

  • U.S. Large Cap Blend Performance (S&P 500): 10.62% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1972 – February 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

  • Long-Term Performance: 7.73% CAGR

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.09

  • S&P 500 Performance: 9.97% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: December 2004 – February 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 8

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 1-year old or older: 8

Gold vs S&P 500: January 1972 – February 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Gold ETFs to Buy and Hold: IAUM vs GLDM vs BAR vs AAAU vs IAU 1.7”

5 Best Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs to Buy and Hold: FEMS vs DGS vs EWX vs EEMS vs SPEM

  • Asset Class: Diversified Emerging Markets

  • Correlation to U.S. Stock Market: 0.75

  • Long-Term Performance: 5.45% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 10.55% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1995 – February 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

  • Correlation to U.S. Stock Market: 0.76

  • Long-Term Performance: 8.08% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 10.63% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: May 2003 – February 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 98

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 27

Diversified Emerging Markets vs S&P 500: January 1995 – February 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Diversified Emerging Markets ETFs to Buy and Hold: FEMS vs DGS vs EWX vs EEMS vs SPEM”

5 Best Natural Resources Sector ETFs to Buy and Hold: FIW vs FXZ vs RSPM vs PYZ vs VAW 1.7

  • Asset Class: Natural Resources Sector

  • Oldest ETF back tested: The Materials Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLB)

  • Correlation to U.S. Stock Market: 0.81

  • Long-Term Performance: 7.78% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 7.50% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1999 – January 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 51

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 29

XLB vs SPY: January 1999 – January 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Natural Resources Sector ETFs to Buy and Hold: FIW vs FXZ vs RSPM vs PYZ vs VAW 1.7”

5 Best Ultra Short Duration Bond (CASH) ETFs to Buy and Hold: PULS vs VNLA vs JPST vs GSY vs NEAR

  • Asset Category: Cash (ICE Indices U.S. Treasury Short Bond Index (IDCOTS))

  • Long-Term Performance: 4.53%

  • Correlation to U.S. markets: -0.01

  • S&P 500 Performance (US Large Cap Blend): 10.52% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1972 – January 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV)

  • Long-Term Performance: 1.17% CAGR

  • Correlation to U.S. markets: -0.12

  • S&P 500 Performance: 9.48% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: February 2007 – January 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 60

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 5-years old or older: 16

    • ETFs not considered for this article: ETFs with complex underlying assets such as swaps, ETFs with high volatility, and ETFs with durations greater than 1 year.

CASH (U.S. Treasury Short Bond Index (IDCOTS)) vs S&P 500: January 1972 – January 2024

Continue reading “5 Best Ultra Short Duration Bond (CASH) ETFs to Buy and Hold: PULS vs VNLA vs JPST vs GSY vs NEAR”

5 U.S. Large Cap Growth ETFs to Buy and Hold Forever: QQQ vs IWY vs ONEQ vs MGK vs SCHG 1.7

  • Asset Class: U.S. Large Cap Growth

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.96

  • Long-Term Performance: 10.59% CAGR

  • U.S. Large Cap Blend Performance (S&P 500): 10.52% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1972 – January 2024

  • Oldest ETF back tested: Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

  • Correlation to U.S. Markets: 0.86

  • Long-Term Performance: 9.40% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 7.39% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: April 1999 – January 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 111

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 23

U.S. Large Cap Growth vs. U.S. Large Cap Blend (aka S&P 500): January 1972 – January 2024

Continue reading “5 U.S. Large Cap Growth ETFs to Buy and Hold Forever: QQQ vs IWY vs ONEQ vs MGK vs SCHG 1.7”

5 Financials Sector ETFs to Buy and Hold Forever: KBWP vs BRK.B vs KIE vs IAK vs IAI 1.7

  • Asset Class: Financials Sector

  • Oldest ETF back tested: The Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLF)

  • Correlation to U.S. Stock Market: 0.81

  • Long-Term Performance: 4.92% CAGR

  • S&P 500 Performance: 7.50% CAGR

  • Back test timeframe: January 1999 – January 2024

  • Number of ETFs available in this asset class: 33

  • Number of ETFs in this asset class that are 10-years old or older: 24

XLF vs SPY: January 1999 – January 2024

Continue reading “5 Financials Sector ETFs to Buy and Hold Forever: KBWP vs BRK.B vs KIE vs IAK vs IAI 1.7”